National airline cancels flights over fuel prices — these are the carriers least likely to be affected

Airfares are rising and travel disruption is spreading as the ripple effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran widen (Picture: Getty Images) If you’ve got big summer plans — specifically the kind that involve getting on a flight — you’re likely to pay a fortune for the pleasure. Airfares are climbing as you read this. Drivers are already paying more at the pumps due to the US-Israeli war on Iran and the ensuing violence across the Middle East. But travellers could soon be paying sky-high airfares if the chaos continues to spike the cost of jet fuel around the world. Jet fuel prices surged 58.4% last week, data from the International Air Travel Association shows, reaching their highest level in four years. Scandinavia’s largest airline has just become the first major carrier in Europe to scrap flights because of surging fuel prices. As the conflict nears the end of its third week, dramatic shifts in the price of oil pose immediate consequences for airlines and passengers, both in terms of whether their plans will get off the ground — and whether they’ll be able to afford them, if they do. What travellers need to understand From a passenger perspective, there is nothing you can do except to make informed decisions about the airline you book with. That’s the message from Marina Efthymiou, Professor of Aviation Management at Dublin City University. ‘The increase in fuel cost is going to be passed on to the passenger, that’s not in question,’ she told Metro. ‘But the extent to which it is passed on depends on the market and how much the airline has hedged against fuel price increases.’ POLL Poll Are you reconsidering travel plans for 2026? YesCheck NoCheck Fuel typically makes up 20-40% of airlines’ total operating costs. Many airlines secure supplies at fixed or capped prices, months – and even years – in advance. This process is known as hedging. It’s a risk management strategy that protects businesses from volatile prices. Among those known to do so are British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, easyJet and Ryanair. However, a number of major US carriers have historically preferred not to hedge, which means they could be more exposed to short-term airfare increases. Airlines including Qantas, SAS, and Air New Zealand have already announced price hikes. SAS, the flag carrier for Denmark, Norway and Sweden, said it will scale back flights in response to the ‘sharp and sudden increase’ in jet fuel costs. The Stockholm-based company said the cancellations amount to hundreds of flights this week, although most of the services scrapped are on short routes within Scandinavia where alternative connections are available. Ryanair, on the other hand, was quick to quell price rise fears. IAG, the umbrella group that British Airways is part of, have hedged up to 60% of its fuel reserves in the past, Marina Efthymiou tells Metro (Picture: Shutterstock) The Irish carrier’s deputy head of communications has said there will be no price rises thanks to the Irish carrier being ‘well hedged for the next 12 months’. That’s why Marina says it will pay to be selective about who you choose to fly with. ‘Because of hedging, certain airlines are going to be more exposed [to price shocks] than others. Who knows what is going to happen, but if the question is which airline is going to perform better during the crisis that is coming, it’s the airlines that have done the most hedging.’ Should I take out travel insurance? It goes without saying that in such uncertain times, insuring your trip against forced or unforeseen cancellations is a must. But insurance only goes so far. Read the fine print. Be clear about what your policy covers and more importantly, what it doesn’t. Remember: acts of war and civil unrest are typically excluded from coverage because they are unpredictable. So if your destination is engulfed in conflict — even if it hadn’t broken out when you booked — your coverage may not apply and you could be on the hook for all or much of the cost of the trip. Travel insurance is ‘designed to make you whole,’ as Suzanne Morrow, CEO of travel insurance agency InsureMyTrip, notes, and if an airline does everything to rebook you or offers you a refund, you may not have a claim. Win a trip to Rome with The Getaway Expert Win a trip to Rome with flights included with Alice’s newsletter (Picture: Alice Murphy) Want more expert travel tips? Written by Metro’s resident travel guru Alice Murphy, The Getaway Expert newsletter is your insider’s guide to travelling smarter. Packed with practical advice, savvy shortcuts and inspiration from her own adventures, it’s designed to help you step off the beaten path and navigate your next escape with confidence. To help you start your journey, we’ve teamed up with Wowcher to offer one lucky reader the chance to discover the hidden thrills of the most romantic city in the world. With return flights from Bristol, Edinburgh, Manchester, London Gatwick or London Stansted, plus two nights in comfortable, centrally located four-star accommodation, this unforgettable city break for two is your perfect excuse to uncover a different side of Rome. Enter now  Open to UK (excluding Northern Ireland) residents aged 18 or over. Closes 11:59pm on 29 March 2029. Full T&Cs apply. Where has the cheapest summer flight prices from the UK? Flight prices are rising for destinations around the world. But right now, the increase for some classic European cities is less than others. For British holidaymakers, the cheapest airfares for trips in June can currently be found for destinations in: Germany (Hamburg, Cologne, Frankfurt, Berlin) Spain (Barcelona, Santander, Alicante, Seville) Ireland (Dublin and Cork) Italy (Milan, Turin, Bologna) What has happened to oil prices since the attack on Iran? The US-Israeli war on Iran has rattled the energy sector and made fuel of all sorts a lot more expensive. The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil and gas route in the Persian Gulf, is still being blocked by the Iranian regime. And that’s largely why prices are rising. Never more than 60 miles wide but deep enough to carry crude tankers, the Strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. It is a throughway for a fifth of the world’s oil supply, or roughly $600bn in annual trade. Every day that it is impassable, nearly 20 million more barrels of oil are trapped inside the Gulf. @reuters Global airlines including Qantas, SAS, and Air New Zealand have announced airfare hikes after jet fuel prices surged following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The war has disrupted key oil export routes and triggered airspace chaos across the Middle East, forcing airlines to reroute flights and push costs onto passengers. #travel #tourism #flights #planes #iranwar ♬ original sound – Reuters – Reuters Alongside that, attacks on tankers, refineries and oil infrastructure across Western Asia are continuing. On Thursday, two foreign fuel tankers in the Gulf were hit by explosions. One person was killed and another 38 people were rescued after the incident near the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr. The explosions came after maritime authorities said three cargo vessels were hit by ‘unknown projectiles’ in the Strait of Hormuz. A spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Wednesday that any vessel linked to the US, Israel or their allies would be targeted. The attacks came on the same day as 32 countries agreed to the largest ever release of oil reserves to steady markets whipsawed by Iranian attacks and American mixed messaging. But with the conflict showing no sign of ending, even that has done little to calm oil prices. This handout photo taken on March 11, 2026 shows smoke rising from the Thai bulk carrier ‘Mayuree Naree’ near the Strait of Hormuz after an attack (Picture: Royal Thai Navy/AFP via Getty Images) The price of Brent crude rose dramatically last week, exceeding the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since 2022. And barrels of jet fuel, which were $85 to $90 before the attack on Iran, soared to between $150 and $200. Oil prices did level off on March 9 after Trump said the war could be over soon. But after Thursday’s attacks, they climbed back above $100 a barrel. The world still is now facing up to a rise in price of close to a third (29%) since before the first strikes landed, something which promises a major impact on people’s finances. And for the aviation industry, where fuel accounts for up to a quarter of operating costs, the consequences are huge. Oil price shocks are pushing airfares on many routes sky-high, and there are fears of a deep travel slump if the war drags on. (Picture: IATA) With so much uncertainty, analysts are reluctant to offer advice. One representative for a regular aviation commentator told Metro they were ‘keen to stay out of directly commenting on the situation’ right now. But if market chatter is anything to go by, the travel industry is in for a turbulent time. James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at oil market intelligence firm Sparta, told the BBC’s Today programme on Friday: ‘I think we’re weeks rather than months away from seeing cancellations and delays due to jet fuel shortages.’ James said European airlines could ‘very much’ be affected by the situation in Western Asia, and that travellers will see higher airfares as a result. ‘I think the effect could be very big,’ he added. And, even if the conflict is resolved soon, he said the impact we’ve already seen on refineries will take time to repair — which is ‘unlikely to be before the summer holiday season’.