Will US stock market perform better than expected this Thanksgiving week? Here’s a 10-year Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq analysis as investors watch AI bubble risks and Fed rate-cut worries

US stock market Thanksgiving week: S&P 500 is up 12.3% in 2025 and the Nasdaq is up 15.3% through Nov. 21. Both beat their long-term 10% average. A 10-year review shows Thanksgiving week usually outperforms. It beat annual trends in 2024, 2023, 2022, 2020, 2019, 2017 and 2016. It matched expectations in 2015 and underperformed in 2021 and 2018. Strong years like 2024 and 2023 saw better-than-expected gains. Weak years like 2022 still saw a holiday-week boost. Only deep volatility years lagged. Investors now watch AI bubble fears and the Feds December rate decision.